演唱会市场逆势火爆，黄牛竟成“经济衰退救星”？-星度环球文化-教育宝

在经济下行、消费者削减开支的当下，华尔街气氛低迷，可演唱会市场却异常火爆。演唱会推广公司Live Nation预计现场音乐产业2025年破纪录，旗下票务应用流量大增。为何演唱会不受经济低迷影响？黄牛党又为何成了这场“逆势狂欢”中的意外“幕后推手”？Finance & economics 财经版块Live music 现场音乐Mo" problems, mo" money 问题越多，钱越多（注：标题来自美国说唱歌手The Notorious B.I.G.的歌曲名字）Concerts seem to be impervious to economic downturns. Why?演唱会似乎不受经济下行的影响。为什么？The mood music on Wall Street is downbeat, as America"s government throttles trade and consumers seem poised to trim spending.华尔街的音乐气氛颇为低落，因为美国政府在贸易方面采取了限制措施，而且消费者似乎准备削减开支。Yet one corner of the entertainment industry is partying on regardless.然而在娱乐业的一个角落里，派对依然继续进行。Live Nation, a concert promoter, has said it expects the live-music industry to break records in 2025.演唱会推广公司“Live Nation”表示，预计现场音乐产业将在2025年打破纪录。Its Ticketmaster app had 70% more traffic this February than last, reckons Sensor Tower, a data firm.数据公司“Sensor Tower”估计，今年2月，“Live Nation”旗下的“票务大师”应用程序的流量比去年2月增加了70%。This party may yet fizzle out.这场派对最终可能还是会不了了之。But the music business has a record of performing well during downturns.但音乐行业在经济低迷时期有着业绩良好的记录。Although concerts were clobbered by covid-19 lockdowns in 2020-21, during America"s previous three recessions live entertainment held up even as spending on other forms of fun dipped, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank.虽然在2020至2021年期间，新冠疫情对演唱会造成了重创，但根据高盛银行的数据，在美国之前三次经济衰退期间，现场娱乐业的表现依然坚挺，即便其他形式的娱乐消费有所下降。Timing is one reason: concert-goers may book tickets months in advance, so the impact of belt-tightening is delayed.时机是一个原因：演唱会观众可能会提前几个月预订门票，因此紧缩开支的影响会有所延迟。Another is that the average big-name gig in America is still cheaper than a night out on Broadway or at the National Football League, meaning that concerts are not the first treats to be forgone in a crunch (they may even serve as cheaper substitutes).另一个原因是，在美国，一场知名艺人的演出的平均票价仍低于百老汇的一晚演出或一场美国国家橄榄球联盟的比赛，这意味着在经济紧张时，演唱会并不是首先被舍弃的娱乐活动（甚至可能成为更实惠的替代选择）。The globalisation of music fandom also protects touring artists from downturns.音乐粉丝群体的全球化也使巡回演出的艺人免受经济衰退的影响。If demand falters in Johannesburg, add a date in Jakarta.如果南非的约翰内斯堡的需求疲软，那就在印度尼西亚的雅加达再加一场。The most improbable saviours of live music in recessions are a group more often cast as villains: ticket touts.在经济衰退时，拯救现场音乐的*出人意料的英雄是一群常被视为反派的人：卖票的黄牛。Concerts are deliberately underpriced, to ensure that true fans-young and hip but penniless-make it into the audience alongside rich oldies and corporate-hospitality bores.演唱会的票价故意定得很低，这是为了确保真正的粉丝——年轻、时尚但没有钱——能够与富有的老人和无聊的企业客户一起进入观众席。Scalpers take advantage by buying tickets early, then reselling them at the true market-clearing price. In booms they prosper: in 2019, just before the pandemic, Live Nation said that the average uplift in ticket prices on the secondary market in America was 70%, providing touts with a profit of $1.3bn (more than Live Nation"s own operating profit that year).黄牛提前购票，然后以真正的市场出清价格把票转卖，利用差价牟利。（注：市场出清价指需求和供给相等时的价格。）在经济繁荣时期，黄牛生意兴隆：就在疫情暴发前的2019年，Live Nation表示，美国二级市场的门票价格平均涨幅为70%，这为黄牛带来了13亿美元的利润（超过了Live Nation当年自身的营业利润）。But when demand softens, touts feel it first.但当需求减弱时，黄牛也能*先感受到。Their billion-dollar profit pool in effect shields the primary market from declines in consumer spending, argue Stephen Laszczyk and Antares Tobelem of Goldman Sachs.高盛的斯蒂芬·拉什奇克和安塔雷斯·托贝勒姆认为，黄牛的数十亿美元利润池实际上保护了一级市场，使其免受消费者支出下降的影响。"In the event of a recession, we would expect that the secondary market would absorb most of the pressure on marginal demand, insulating the underlying profitability of the live-music industry," they predict. If the direst forecasts for America"s economy come true, fans may not be willing to pay as much to see bands like Oasis, whose comeback tour begins in July.“如果经济衰退，我们预计二级市场会承受住边际需求的大部分压力，从而保护现场音乐行业的基本盈利能力。”他们预测。（注：边际需求指价格变化时，需求增加或减少的值。）如果对美国经济*糟糕的预测成真，那么歌迷们可能不愿意花那么多钱去看像“绿洲”等乐队的演出（绿洲乐队的复出巡演将于七月开始）。Yet with tickets already sold out in the primary market, the Gallagher brothers have no need to worry.然而，由于一级市场门票已经售罄，所以加拉格兄弟（乐队的两位主唱）无需为此担忧。It is those trying to make a buck in the secondary market who will have to roll with it.而那些试图在二级市场赚钱的人，将不得不接受这一现实。（注：roll with it也是绿洲乐队的一首歌名。）综合来源：每日英语听力 | 双语精读等