20万岗位将被机器取代？东欧制造业的 “无人化” 浪潮-星度环球文化-教育宝

在匈牙利一家工厂，机器声取代了人声，工人近乎消失 —— 这是东欧制造业的缩影。因工资上涨冲击低成本优势，匈、捷、波等国工厂主被迫加码自动化。自欧盟东扩后蓬勃发展的制造业，如今面临转折：匈牙利制造业投资激增却流失2.3万岗位，捷克或迎2013年来全年就业下滑。工资涨幅超西欧、机器人价格下降，推动自动化加速，未来10年匈牙利或有20万岗位被取代。这场变革中，就业与转型的平衡成关键命题。

Istman Simon"s factory in western Hungary produces more than one million plastic parts every day.伊士曼·西蒙在匈牙利西部的工厂每天生产100多万件塑料零件。But on a busy morning in one of its large production areas, there is only the sound of machines.但在一个繁忙的上午，在它的一个大型生产区里，只有机器的声音。Workers have all but disappeared.工人们几乎都消失了。Similar changes are taking place on production lines across Eastern Europe.东欧各地的生产线也发生了类似的变化。Rising wages for workers are in conflict with the area"s image as a low-cost production base.工人工资上涨与该地区作为低成本生产基地的形象相冲突。So factory owners from Hungary to the Czech Republic and Poland find themselves因此，从匈牙利到捷克共和国和波兰的工厂主们发现，with little choice but to invest in machinery if they want to remain competitive.如果他们想要保持竞争力，除了投资机器，他们别无选择。Manufacturing in the area has increased since the European Union expanded eastwards in the 2000s.自欧盟在本世纪前10年向东扩张以来，该地区的制造业一直在增长。Since then, companies such as carmakers Audi and Daimler have opened local production lines and the number of parts suppliers has grown.自此，汽车制造商奥迪和戴姆勒等公司已在当地开设了生产线，零部件供应商的数量也有所增加。But more recently strong economic growth has led to rising wages and a shortage of workers.但最近强劲的经济增长导致了工资上涨和劳动力短缺。Zoltan Laszlo is a Hungarian labor union leader.佐尔坦·拉兹洛是匈牙利工会领袖。He told the Reuters news agency that the use of robot labor has risen notably in the automobile, steel and machinery industries.他告诉路透社，在汽车、钢铁和机械行业，机器人劳动力的使用显著增加。"We can see human labor being replaced with machinery and artificial intelligence," he said.“我们可以看到，机器和人工智能正在取代人类劳动，”他说。"Such investments can already be seen … leading to job losses."“正如我们所见，这样的投资已经……导致出现失业现象。”Employment numbers are one sign Eastern Europe"s industry may be at a turning point.就业数据是东欧工业可能正处于转折点的一个迹象。Hungary"s economy grew nearly 5 percent last year,匈牙利经济去年增长了近5%，and manufacturing investments rose at the fastest rate in three years.制造业投资以三年来*快的速度增长。Yet the industry lost nearly 23,000 jobs, ending six straight years of employment growth.然而，该行业失去了近2.3万个就业岗位，结束了连续6年的就业增长。In the Czech Republic,在捷克共和国，employment numbers showed a year-on-year loss of almost a thousand manufacturing jobs between July and September of last year.就业数据显示，去年7月至9月，制造业同比减少近1000个就业岗位。This suggests employment in manufacturing could have decreased for the first time since 2013 over the full year.这表明，制造业就业人数全年可能出现自2013年以来的下降。Peter Simon is chief executive of Simon Plastics, a company his father created 35 years ago.彼得·西蒙是西蒙塑料公司的首席执行官，他的父亲在35年前创建了这家公司。As he watched a line of machines making parts for cars recently, Simon noted there are no human operators.最近，当西蒙看着一排汽车制造零部件的机器时，他注意到没有人工操作员。"Wages are going up, the prices of robots are coming down, so this is the way to get returns," he said.“工资在上涨，机器人的价格在下降，所以这是获得回报的途径，”他说。Simon Plastics is hoping to expand production.西蒙塑料公司希望扩大生产。But pressured by increasing wages and falling prices,但在工资上涨和价格下跌的压力下，all of the company"s recent investment of over $3 million was spent on automation.该公司最近投资300多万美元，全部用于自动化。The company has not yet cut any of its 400 jobs.该公司尚未裁减400名员工中的任何一名。Its owners have found other positions for those whose work robots have replaced.该公司的管理者们为那些被机器人取代的工人安排了新的岗位。But the company plans to automate the rest of its physical work after a 50 percent jump in operator wages over the past three years.但在过去三年中，运营商的工资上涨了50%，公司计划将剩余的体力工作自动化。Josef Stredula is head of the head of the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions.约瑟夫·斯特杜拉是捷克-莫拉维亚工会联盟的领导人。He says the movement toward automation has been a relatively slow one.他说，自动化的进程相对缓慢。But he notes that several estimates have shown up to 10 percent of jobs could disappear.但他指出，一些估计显示，多达10%的工作岗位可能会消失。"Big changes are awaiting us," Stredula said.“巨大的变化正等着我们，”斯特杜拉说。He added that automation might make people less responsible for heavy or repetitive physical work.他补充说，自动化可能会让人们更少地承担繁重或重复性的体力工作。However, it was important to ease the change, for example by retraining affected workers.然而，重要的是缓和这个变化，例如通过重新培训受影响的工人。"We have to do everything to make the future not so bleak but relatively easier for everyone," he said.他表示：“我们必须尽一切努力，让未来不那么黯淡，让每个人都能相对轻松一些。”Employment agency Hays recently noted that就业机构Hays最近指出，the average yearly wage increase in the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary is around 10 percent.捷克共和国、波兰和匈牙利的年平均工资涨幅在10%左右。That is far higher than in many western countries.这远远高于许多西方国家。The agency has noted that almost 200,000 Hungarian jobs could be fully automated over the next 10 years.该机构指出，在未来10年内，匈牙利将有近20万个工作岗位实现完全自动化。"It is only a question of when it will be more economical for most companies to start with automation on a much bigger scale," said David Marek,“问题只在于，对大多数公司来说，什么时候开始更大规模的自动化会更经济，”戴维·马雷克说。an economist with tax and advisory service Deloitte.他是德勤会计事务所的一名经济学家。The International Federation of Robotics expects robot sales in major Eastern European economies to increase through 2022.国际机器人联合会预计，到2022年，东欧主要经济体的机器人销量将会增加。But while the group admits that some jobs will disappear,尽管该组织承认，一些工作岗位将会消失，it does not predict a major effect on employment.但它预计这不会对就业产生重大影响。I"m Pete Musto.皮特·穆斯托为您播报。内容来源：VOA慢速英语