为什么说DeepSeek可能颠覆硅谷关于AI的认知？

图源网络The artificial intelligence breakthrough that is sending shock waves through stock markets, spooking Silicon Valley giants, and generating breathless takes about the end of America"s technological dominance arrived with an unassuming, wonky title: "Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning."一项人工智能突破在股市掀起冲击波、令硅谷巨头感到恐慌、引发了关于美国技术主导地位终结的热议，这项突破却以一个低调、学究气的标题出现：“通过强化学习激励大语言模型的推理能力”。The 22-page paper, released by a scrappy Chinese AI start-up called DeepSeek, didn"t immediately set off alarm bells.这份22页的论文由一家结构松散、名为DeepSeek的中国AI初创公司发布，当时论文并没有立即敲响警钟。It took a few days for researchers to digest the paper"s claims, and the implications of what it described.研究人员花了几天时间来消化论文的主张，以及所描述内容的可能影响。The company had created a new AI model called DeepSeek-R1, built by a team of researchers who claimed to have used a modest number of second-rate AI chips to match the performance of leading American AI Models at a fraction of the cost.该公司创造了一个名为DeepSeek-R1的AI新模型，构建模型的研究团队表示，他们用数量不多的二流AI芯片、以极低的成本就达到了堪与美国AI公司相媲美的性能。DeepSeek said it had done this by using clever engineering to substitute for raw computing horsepower.DeepSeek表示，它是通过用巧妙的工程技术来替代原始算力而做到的。And it had done it in China, a country many experts thought was in a distant second place in the global AI race.而且它是在中国做到了这一点，许多专家认为中国在全球AI竞赛中处于远远落后的第二位。Some industry watchers initially reacted to DeepSeek"s breakthrough with disbelief.一些行业观察家最初对DeepSeek的突破表示怀疑。Surely, they thought, DeepSeek had cheated to achieve R1"s results, or fudged their numbers to make their model look more impressive than it was.他们认为，DeepSeek为了达到R1的结果肯定作了弊，或者篡改了数据，让模型看起来比实际更厉害。Eventually, as more people dug into the details of DeepSeek-R1 - which, unlike most leading AI models, was released as open-source software, allowing outsiders to examine its inner workings more closely - their skepticism morphed into worry.最终，随着越来越多的人深入研究DeepSeek-R1的细节（与大多数的AI模型不同，它是作为开源软件发布的，让外部人员能更仔细地审查其内部工作原理），他们的怀疑变成了担忧。And when lots of Americans started to use DeepSeek"s models for themselves, and the DeepSeek mobile app hit the number one spot on Apple"s App Store, it tipped into full-blown panic.当许多美国人开始亲自使用DeepSeek的模型，当DeepSeek移动端应用程序在苹果应用商店排名第*时，这个模型引发了全面的恐慌。Based on conversations I"ve had with industry insiders, and a week"s worth of experts poking around and testing the paper"s findings for themselves, it appears to be throwing into question several major assumptions the American tech industry has been making.根据我与业内人士的交谈，以及一周以来专家们的探索和对论文结果的亲自测试，这个模型似乎对美国科技行业一直做出的几个主要假设提出了质疑。The first is the assumption that in order to build cutting-edge AI models, you need to spend huge amounts of money on powerful chips and data centers.第*个假设是，为了构建*尖端的AI模型，你需要在强大的芯片和数据中心上花费巨额资金。It"s hard to overstate how foundational this dogma has become.这个教条的根深蒂固怎么夸大都不为过。Companies like Microsoft, Meta and Google have already spent tens of billions of dollars building out the infrastructure they thought was needed to build and run next-generation AI models.微软、Meta、谷歌之类的公司已经花费了数百亿美元来建造他们认为构建和运行下一代AI模型所需的基础设施。They plan to spend tens of billions more - or, in the case of OpenAI, as much as $500 billion through a joint venture with Oracle and SoftBank that was announced last week.他们计划还要再投入数百亿美元，或者像OpenAI的情况，上周宣布通过与甲骨文和软银的合资企业，再投入多达5000亿美元。DeepSeek appears to have spent a small fraction of that building R1.DeepSeek建造R1似乎只花费了这些金额的极小一部分。That, in turn, means that AI companies may be able to achieve very powerful capabilities with far less investment than previously thought.这继而意味着AI公司可能用比之前想象的少得多的投资来达到非常强大的能力。And it suggests that we may soon see a flood of investment into smaller AI start-ups, and much more competition for the giants of Silicon Valley. (Which, because of the enormous costs of training their models, have mostly been competing with each other until now.)这表明我们可能很快就会看到大量投资涌入规模较小的AI初创企业，而硅谷巨头们将面临更多竞争。（由于训练模型的成本巨大，到目前为止，基本上是巨头之间互相竞争。）There are other, more technical reasons that everyone in Silicon Valley is paying attention to DeepSeek.此外还有其他技术性原因使得整个硅谷都在关注DeepSeek。In the research paper, the company reveals some details about how R1 was actually built, which include some cutting-edge techniques in model distillation. (Basically, that means compressing big AI models down into smaller ones, making them cheaper to run without losing much in the way of performance.)在研究论文中，DeepSeek透露了关于R1实际建构方式的一些细节，其中包括模型蒸馏方面的一些尖端技术。（模型蒸馏基本上是指将大型AI模型压缩成较小的模型，使运行成本更低，而且不会在性能方面损失太多。）DeepSeek also included details that suggested that it had not been as hard as previously thought to convert a "vanilla" AI language model into a more sophisticated reasoning model, by applying a technique known as reinforcement learning on top of it. (Don"t worry if these terms go over your head - what matters is that methods for improving AI systems that were previously closely guarded by American tech companies are now out there on the web, free for anyone to take and replicate.)DeepSeek还在论文里包括了一些细节，表明将一个“平淡无奇”的AI语言模型转换为更精密复杂的推理模型并不像之前想象的那么困难，方法是在其基础上应用一种叫做“强化学习”的技术。（如果这些术语让你摸不着头脑，也不用担心，重要的是以前被美国科技公司严格保密的改进AI系统的方法现在已经在网络上公开，任何人都可以免费获取和复制。）DeepSeek"s breakthrough also undercuts some of the geopolitical assumptions many American experts had been making about China"s position in the AI race.DeepSeek的突破也削弱了许多美国专家对中国在AI竞赛中的地位所做的一些地缘政治假设。First, it challenges the narrative that China is meaningfully behind the frontier, when it comes to building powerful AI models.首先，它挑战了这样一种说法，即在构建强大的AI模型方面，中国远远落后于前沿。For years, many AI experts (and the policymakers who listen to them) have assumed that the United States had a lead of at least several years, and that copying the advancements made by American tech firms was prohibitively hard for Chinese companies to do quickly.多年来，许多AI专家（以及听取他们意见的政策制定者）一直认为，美国至少数年，而中国公司要迅速复制美国科技公司取得的进步是极其困难的。But DeepSeek"s results show that China has advanced AI capabilities that can match or exceed models from OpenAI and other American AI companies, and that breakthroughs made by U.S. firms may be trivially easy for Chinese firms - or, at least, one Chinese firm - to replicate in a matter of weeks.但DeepSeek的成果表明，中国拥有先进的AI能力，可以与OpenAI等其他美国AI公司的模型相媲美或超越它们，以及对于中国公司——至少对于这一家中国公司——来说，美国公司取得的突破可能轻轻松松就可以在几周内复制。来源：每日英语听力丨双语精读

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